- Commods lose diversification edge with crisis
By Barani Krishnan and Jennifer Ablan
NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Using commodities to
hedge potential losses in stock markets has not worked
lately, and the tighter link among assets these days means
diversification benefits may not be as great as before.
Hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds and wealthy individuals
who invested in commodities on the theory that
they move independently of other asset classes watched
helplessly as the global economic nosedive turned commodities,
once the top asset class, into the year's worst
performer after equities.
Those who have studied commodities and longtime investors
in energy, metals and grains say that in ordinary times,
these markets make good alternatives to stocks.
But these are not ordinary times.
"This is the worst I've seen in my 10 years in the business,"
said Rian Akey, chief operating officer at Cole Partners, a
Chicago fund manager that invests in commodity hedge
funds.
"The theory of diversifying into commodities has relied on
all things being different to stocks, i.e. different fundamentals,
different pricing issues, different asset classes, etc.,"
Akey said. "All that goes away when people are selling everything,
no matter what, to raise cash. Then, you have high
correlation, instead of non-correlation."
Until June, commodities were the best performing asset
class for four straight quarters as easy credit, booming
growth in giant developing economies like India, China,
Russia and Brazil and surging inflation sent prices of oil,
gold, copper, corn and other resources to record highs.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, a global commodities
benchmark, saw its best gains in 35 years in the second
quarter, returning 33 percent. Now, it is down that much
for the whole year. The only worse performer is the MSCI
All-World Index -- a stocks benchmark for institutional investors
-- which is down 48 percent.
Akey, who wrote a paper in 2005 that showcased commodities
as an effective risk-adjusted return source and
portfolio hedge, said the credit crisis has shown the asset
class is not the antithesis of stocks as many believed.
"In a negative equity environment, you have the potential to
make money in commodities. But it can be damaging if
people put too much reliance upon commodities as an equity
hedge because you can also lose money during down
periods in equities as well," he said.
"The current environment is characterized by deleveraging
and clearly, fundamentals are not the driver. I don't think in
the short-term you're going to see diversification being
highly beneficial for anybody," Akey said.
Brian Hicks, co-manager of a resources fund at U.S. Global
Investors, summed up a similar feeling when commenting
recently on how commodities and equities had tacked on
to each other on their way down. "There is nowhere to
hide," he said.
Thursday, 27 November 2008
Nowhere To Hide
This refers the point I made. Commodities are not as insulated as some of commodity gurus claim they are. From Reuters (not online)
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