Thursday, 27 November 2008

Nowhere To Hide

This refers the point I made. Commodities are not as insulated as some of commodity gurus claim they are. From Reuters (not online)
  • Commods lose diversification edge with crisis
    By Barani Krishnan and Jennifer Ablan
    NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Using commodities to
    hedge potential losses in stock markets has not worked
    lately, and the tighter link among assets these days means
    diversification benefits may not be as great as before.
    Hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds and wealthy individuals
    who invested in commodities on the theory that
    they move independently of other asset classes watched
    helplessly as the global economic nosedive turned commodities,
    once the top asset class, into the year's worst
    performer after equities.
    Those who have studied commodities and longtime investors
    in energy, metals and grains say that in ordinary times,
    these markets make good alternatives to stocks.
    But these are not ordinary times.
    "This is the worst I've seen in my 10 years in the business,"
    said Rian Akey, chief operating officer at Cole Partners, a
    Chicago fund manager that invests in commodity hedge
    funds.
    "The theory of diversifying into commodities has relied on
    all things being different to stocks, i.e. different fundamentals,
    different pricing issues, different asset classes, etc.,"
    Akey said. "All that goes away when people are selling everything,
    no matter what, to raise cash. Then, you have high
    correlation, instead of non-correlation."
    Until June, commodities were the best performing asset
    class for four straight quarters as easy credit, booming
    growth in giant developing economies like India, China,
    Russia and Brazil and surging inflation sent prices of oil,
    gold, copper, corn and other resources to record highs.
    The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, a global commodities
    benchmark, saw its best gains in 35 years in the second
    quarter, returning 33 percent. Now, it is down that much
    for the whole year. The only worse performer is the MSCI
    All-World Index -- a stocks benchmark for institutional investors
    -- which is down 48 percent.
    Akey, who wrote a paper in 2005 that showcased commodities
    as an effective risk-adjusted return source and
    portfolio hedge, said the credit crisis has shown the asset
    class is not the antithesis of stocks as many believed.
    "In a negative equity environment, you have the potential to
    make money in commodities. But it can be damaging if
    people put too much reliance upon commodities as an equity
    hedge because you can also lose money during down
    periods in equities as well," he said.
    "The current environment is characterized by deleveraging
    and clearly, fundamentals are not the driver. I don't think in
    the short-term you're going to see diversification being
    highly beneficial for anybody," Akey said.
    Brian Hicks, co-manager of a resources fund at U.S. Global
    Investors, summed up a similar feeling when commenting
    recently on how commodities and equities had tacked on
    to each other on their way down. "There is nowhere to
    hide," he said.
This ties in well with the marco view approach. Growth, deleveraging of assets, dollar movements...etc

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